Adjuvant abemaciclib combined with endocrine therapy for high-risk early breast cancer: safety and patient-reported outcomes from the monarchE study.

BACKGROUND: In monarchE, abemaciclib plus endocrine therapy (ET) as adjuvant treatment of hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor 2-negative, high-risk, early breast cancer (EBC) demonstrated a clinically meaningful improvement in invasive disease-free survival versus ET alone. Detailed safety analyses conducted at a median follow-up of 27 months and key patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are presented. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The safety population included all patients who received at least one dose of study treatment (n = 5591). Safety analyses included incidence, management, and outcomes of common and clinically relevant adverse events (AEs). Patient-reported health-related quality of life, ET symptoms, fatigue, and side-effect burden were assessed. RESULTS: The addition of abemaciclib to ET resulted in higher incidence of grade ≥3 AEs (49.7% versus 16.3% with ET alone), predominantly laboratory cytopenias [e.g. neutropenia (19.6%)] without clinical complications. Abemaciclib-treated patients experienced more serious AEs (15.2% versus 8.8%). Discontinuation of abemaciclib and/or ET due to AEs occurred in 18.5% of patients, mainly due to grade 1/2 AEs (66.8%). AEs were managed with comedications (e.g. antidiarrheals), abemaciclib dose holds (61.7%), and/or dose reductions (43.4%). Diarrhea was generally low grade (grade 1/2: 76%); grade 2/3 events were highest in the first month (20.5%), most were short-lived (≤7 days) and did not recur. Venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) were higher with abemaciclib + ET (2.5%) versus ET (0.6%); in the abemaciclib arm, increased VTE risk was observed with tamoxifen versus aromatase inhibitors (4.3% versus 1.8%). PROs were similar between arms, including being 'bothered by side-effects of treatment', except for diarrhea. At ≥3 months, most patients reporting diarrhea reported 'a little bit' or 'somewhat'. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with high-risk EBC, adjuvant abemaciclib + ET has an acceptable safety profile and tolerability is supported by PRO findings. Most AEs were reversible and manageable with comedications and/or dose modifications, consistent with the known abemaciclib toxicity profile.

Adjuvant abemaciclib combined with endocrine therapy for high-risk early breast cancer: updated efficacy and Ki-67 analysis from the monarchE study.

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant abemaciclib combined with endocrine therapy (ET) previously demonstrated clinically meaningful improvement in invasive disease-free survival (IDFS) and distant relapse-free survival (DRFS) in hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, node-positive, high-risk early breast cancer at the second interim analysis, however follow-up was limited. Here, we present results of the prespecified primary outcome analysis and an additional follow-up analysis. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This global, phase III, open-label trial randomized (1 : 1) 5637 patients to adjuvant ET for ≥5 years ± abemaciclib for 2 years. Cohort 1 enrolled patients with ≥4 positive axillary lymph nodes (ALNs), or 1-3 positive ALNs and either grade 3 disease or tumor ≥5 cm. Cohort 2 enrolled patients with 1-3 positive ALNs and centrally determined high Ki-67 index (≥20%). The primary endpoint was IDFS in the intent-to-treat population (cohorts 1 and 2). Secondary endpoints were IDFS in patients with high Ki-67, DRFS, overall survival, and safety. RESULTS: At the primary outcome analysis, with 19 months median follow-up time, abemaciclib + ET resulted in a 29% reduction in the risk of developing an IDFS event [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-0.87; nominal P = 0.0009]. At the additional follow-up analysis, with 27 months median follow-up and 90% of patients off treatment, IDFS (HR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.59-0.82; nominal P < 0.0001) and DRFS (HR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.57-0.83; nominal P < 0.0001) benefit was maintained. The absolute improvements in 3-year IDFS and DRFS rates were 5.4% and 4.2%, respectively. Whereas Ki-67 index was prognostic, abemaciclib benefit was consistent regardless of Ki-67 index. Safety data were consistent with the known abemaciclib risk profile. CONCLUSION: Abemaciclib + ET significantly improved IDFS in patients with hormone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative, node-positive, high-risk early breast cancer, with an acceptable safety profile. Ki-67 index was prognostic, but abemaciclib benefit was observed regardless of Ki-67 index. Overall, the robust treatment benefit of abemaciclib extended beyond the 2-year treatment period.

Efficacy and safety of trastuzumab, lapatinib, and paclitaxel neoadjuvant treatment with or without prolonged exposure to anti-HER2 therapy, and with or without hormone therapy for HER2-positive primary breast cancer: a randomised, five-arm, multicentre, open-label phase II trial.

BACKGROUND: Dual blockade of HER2 promises increased pathological complete response (pCR) rate compared with single blockade in the presence of chemotherapy for HER2-positive (+) primary breast cancer. Many questions remain regarding optimal duration of treatment and combination impact of endocrine therapy for luminal HER2 disease. METHODS: We designed a randomised phase II, five-arm study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of lapatinib and trastuzumab (6 weeks) followed by lapatinib and trastuzumab plus weekly paclitaxel (12 weeks) with/without prolongation of anti-HER2 therapy prior to chemotherapy (18 vs. 6 weeks), and with/without endocrine therapy in patients with HER2+ and/or oestrogen receptor (ER)+ disease. The primary endpoint was comprehensive pCR (CpCR) rate. Among the secondary endpoints, pCR (yT0-isyN0) rate, safety, and clinical response were evaluated. RESULTS: In total, 215 patients were enrolled; 212 were included in the full analysis set (median age 53.0 years; tumour size = T2, 65%; and tumour spread = N0, 55%). CpCR was achieved in 101 (47.9%) patients and was significantly higher in ER- patients than in ER+ patients (ER- 63.0%, ER+ 36.1%; P = 0.0034). pCR with pN0 was achieved in 42.2% of patients (ER- 57.6%, ER+ 30.3%). No significant difference was observed in pCR rate between prolonged exposure groups and standard groups. Better clinical response outcomes were obtained in the prolongation phase of the anti-HER2 therapy. No surplus was detected in pCR rate by adding endocrine treatment. No major safety concern was recognised by prolonging the anti-HER2 treatment or adding endocrine therapy. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed the therapeutic impact of lapatinib, trastuzumab, and paclitaxel therapy for each ER- and ER+ subgroup of HER2+ patients. Development of further strategies and tools is required, particularly for luminal HER2 disease.

Label-free photoacoustic imaging of human palmar vessels: a structural morphological analysis.

We analysed the vascular morphology of the palm using a photoacoustic tomography (PAT) instrument with a hemispherical detector array. The three-dimensional (3D) morphology of blood vessels was determined noninvasively. Overall, 12 females and 11 males were recruited as healthy volunteers. Their ages were distributed almost evenly from 22 to 59 years. In all cases, many vascular networks were observed just beneath the skin and were determined to be veins anatomically. To analyse the major arteries, the layer containing the subcutaneous venous network was removed from the image. The analysis focused on the common and proper palmar digital arteries. We used the curvature of these arteries as a parameter to analyse their morphologies. There was no significant difference in the curvature between genders when comparing the subjects as a whole. The blood vessel curvature increased with age. Good agreement was found between the 3D numerical analysis results and the subjective evaluation of the two-dimensional (2D) projection image. The PAT system enabled visualization of the 3D features of blood vessels in the palm and noninvasive analysis of arterial tortuousness.

Characterisation of the HLA-DRB1*07:01 biomarker for lapatinib-induced liver toxicity during treatment of early-stage breast cancer patients with lapatinib in combination with trastuzumab and/or taxanes.

HLA-DRB1*07:01 allele carriage was characterised as a risk biomarker for lapatinib-induced liver injury in a large global study evaluating lapatinib, alone and in combination with trastuzumab and taxanes, as adjuvant therapy for advanced breast cancer (adjuvant lapatinib and/or trastuzumab treatment optimisation). HLA-DRB1*07:01 carriage was associated with serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) elevations in lapatinib-treated patients (odds ratio 6.5, P=3 × 10-26, n=4482) and the risk and severity of ALT elevation for lapatinib-treated patients was higher in homozygous than heterozygous HLA-DRB1*07:01 genotype carriers. A higher ALT case incidence plus weaker HLA association observed during concurrent administration of lapatinib and taxane suggested a subset of liver injury in this combination group that was HLA-DRB1*07:01 independent. Furthermore, the incidence of ALT elevation demonstrated an expected correlation with geographic HLA-DRB1*07:01 carriage frequency. Robust ALT elevation risk estimates for HLA-DRB1*07:01 may support causality discrimination and safety risk management during the use of lapatinib combination therapy for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer.

De-escalating and escalating treatments for early-stage breast cancer: the St. Gallen International Expert Consensus Conference on the Primary Therapy of Early Breast Cancer 2017.

The 15th St. Gallen International Breast Cancer Conference 2017 in Vienna, Austria reviewed substantial new evidence on loco-regional and systemic therapies for early breast cancer. Treatments were assessed in light of their intensity, duration and side-effects, seeking where appropriate to escalate or de-escalate therapies based on likely benefits as predicted by tumor stage and tumor biology. The Panel favored several interventions that may reduce surgical morbidity, including acceptance of 2 mm margins for DCIS, the resection of residual cancer (but not baseline extent of cancer) in women undergoing neoadjuvant therapy, acceptance of sentinel node biopsy following neoadjuvant treatment of many patients, and the preference for neoadjuvant therapy in HER2 positive and triple-negative, stage II and III breast cancer. The Panel favored escalating radiation therapy with regional nodal irradiation in high-risk patients, while encouraging omission of boost in low-risk patients. The Panel endorsed gene expression signatures that permit avoidance of chemotherapy in many patients with ER positive breast cancer. For women with higher risk tumors, the Panel escalated recommendations for adjuvant endocrine treatment to include ovarian suppression in premenopausal women, and extended therapy for postmenopausal women. However, low-risk patients can avoid these treatments. Finally, the Panel recommended bisphosphonate use in postmenopausal women to prevent breast cancer recurrence. The Panel recognized that recommendations are not intended for all patients, but rather to address the clinical needs of the majority of common presentations. Individualization of adjuvant therapy means adjusting to the tumor characteristics, patient comorbidities and preferences, and managing constraints of treatment cost and access that may affect care in both the developed and developing world.

Toxicity profile differences of adjuvant docetaxel/cyclophosphamide (TC) between Asian and Caucasian breast cancer patients.

AIM: For early-stage breast cancer, four cycles of docetaxel and cyclophosphamide (TC) was proven superior to doxorubicin plus cyclophosphamide in the US Oncology 9375 trial. Given primary prophylactic antibiotics, 5% febrile neutropenia was recorded in a population comprising 75.5% Caucasians. Smaller trials and retrospective studies reviewing TC use in Asian patients did not produce similar incidence rates. This study aims to discover the variable hematological toxicities with TC use in Caucasian and Asian patients. METHODS: Breast cancer data was retrospectively reviewed for patients receiving adjuvant docetaxel 60-75 mg/m2 plus cyclophosphamide 600 mg/m2 from six countries (China, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan, Italy, and United States). Similar number of patients with relatively balanced baseline characteristics were chosen for analysis of hematological and nonhematological toxicities and survival data. RESULTS: From March 2004 to July 2013, data of 227 patients (127 Asians and 100 Caucasian) patients were analyzed for treatment-related toxicities. During the four cycles of TC, Asians had a significantly higher rate of grade ≥2 neutropenia than Caucasians (45.7% vs 6.0%; P <0.001) and significantly more grade ≥3 neutropenia events were documented (respectively 30.7% vs 4.0%, P <0.001). The prophylactic use of G-CSF was similar; 26.0% in Asians and 28.0% in Caucasian (P = 0.764). There were no differences in nonhematological toxicities. No significant difference in disease-free survival was observed between Asians and Caucasians (log-rank P = 0.910). CONCLUSIONS: Ethnic differences in toxicity profile exist between Asian and Caucasian patients given adjuvant TC. Over 30% Asians but less than 5% Caucasians experienced grade ≥3 neutropenia.

Outcomes of fulvestrant therapy among japanese women with advanced breast cancer: a retrospective multicenter cohort study (JBCRG-C06; Safari).

PURPOSE: This retrospective study evaluated the effect of clinical background and treatment line on time to treatment failure (TTF) in advanced/metastatic breast cancer (AMBC) patients receiving F500 in Japan (UMIN 000015168). METHODS: Patients who commenced F500 treatment were registered at 16 sites in Japan. Correlations between baseline clinicopathological factors, treatment line, and TTF were investigated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. TTF data were analyzed using univariate analysis and multivariate analysis with a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Data for 1072 patients were available; 1031 patients (96.2%) were evaluable for efficacy. F500 was administered as first-line treatment in 2.0%, second-line in 22.7%, third-line in 26.7%, and ≥fourth-line in 48.6% patients. Median TTF was 5.4 months. Multivariate analysis found that earlier F500 use (first and second vs. third vs. ≥fourth line; hazard ratio (HR) = 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74-0.86; P < 0.001), longer period from AMBC diagnosis to F500 use (≥3 vs. <3 years; HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.51-0.70; P < 0.001), and no prior palliative chemotherapy administered for unresectable or metastatic breast cancer (no vs. yes; HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.60-0.80; P < 0.001) were associated with significantly longer TTF. Among 691 patients, where information on histologic/nuclear grade was available, a low grade was also associated with a longer TTF, but this finding was not maintained among patients with recurrent breast cancer (N = 558). Among women with recurrent breast cancer, a longer DFI between a patient's initial breast cancer diagnosis and their recurrence was associated with a longer TTF on F500 therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that treatment period of F500 was longer when used in earlier-line treatment. For patients on F500, TTF was also longer for patients who had not received prior palliative chemotherapy and for those who had a longer period from their AMBC diagnosis to F500 use.

Visualization of tumor-related blood vessels in human breast by photoacoustic imaging system with a hemispherical detector array.

Noninvasive measurement of the distribution and oxygenation state of hemoglobin (Hb) inside the tissue is strongly required to analyze the tumor-associated vasculatures. We developed a photoacoustic imaging (PAI) system with a hemispherical-shaped detector array (HDA). Here, we show that PAI system with HDA revealed finer vasculature, more detailed blood-vessel branching structures, and more detailed morphological vessel characteristics compared with MRI by the use of breast shape deformation of MRI to PAI and their fused image. Morphologically abnormal peritumoral blood vessel features, including centripetal photoacoustic signals and disruption or narrowing of vessel signals, were observed and intratumoral signals were detected by PAI in breast cancer tissues as a result of the clinical study of 22 malignant cases. Interestingly, it was also possible to analyze anticancer treatment-driven changes in vascular morphological features and function, such as improvement of intratumoral blood perfusion and relevant changes in intravascular hemoglobin saturation of oxygen. This clinical study indicated that PAI appears to be a promising tool for noninvasive analysis of human blood vessels and may contribute to improve cancer diagnosis.

Final efficacy and updated safety results of the randomized phase III BEATRICE trial evaluating adjuvant bevacizumab-containing therapy in triple-negative early breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this analysis was to assess the long-term impact of adding bevacizumab to adjuvant chemotherapy for early triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). METHODS: Patients eligible for the open-label randomized phase III BEATRICE trial had centrally confirmed triple-negative operable primary invasive breast cancer (pT1a-pT3). Investigators selected anthracycline- and/or taxane-based chemotherapy for each patient. After definitive surgery, patients were randomized 1:1 to receive ≥4 cycles of chemotherapy alone or with 1 year of bevacizumab (5 mg/kg/week equivalent). Stratification factors were nodal status, selected chemotherapy, hormone receptor status, and type of surgery. The primary end point was invasive disease-free survival (IDFS; previously reported). Secondary outcome measures included overall survival (OS) and safety. RESULTS: After 56 months' median follow-up, 293 of 2591 randomized patients had died. There was no statistically significant difference in OS between treatment arms in either the total population (hazard ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.74-1.17; P = 0.52) or pre-specified subgroups. The 5-year OS rate was 88% (95% CI 86-90%) in both treatment arms. Updated IDFS results were consistent with the primary IDFS analysis. Five-year IDFS rates were 77% (95% CI 75-79%) with chemotherapy alone versus 80% (95% CI 77-82%) with bevacizumab. From 18 months after first study dose to study end, new grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in 4.6% and 4.5% of patients in the two arms, respectively. CONCLUSION: Final OS results showed no significant benefit from bevacizumab therapy for early TNBC. Late-onset toxicities were rare in both groups. Five-year OS and IDFS rates suggest that the prognosis for patients with TNBC is better than previously thought. CLINICALTRIALS.GOV: NCT00528567.

Clinical benefit of nomogram for predicting positive resection margins in breast conserving surgery.

PURPOSE: Previously, we reported a nomogram for the prediction of positive resection margin (RM) after breast conserving surgery (BCS). This study was conducted to evaluate the clinical usefulness of the nomogram. METHODS: Prospective patients who underwent operations using the nomogram between July 2012 and August 2013 (nomogram group; N = 260) were compared with past control patients who underwent operations between July 2010 and October 2011 and underwent frozen section biopsy (FSB) without use of the nomogram (N = 266). In the nomogram group, an intraoperative assessment of RM using FSB was only performed when the nomogram score was higher than predefined cut-off (>80). In addition, we conducted retrospective analysis of additional 181 patients who received BCS in another institute (Kyoto University Hospital). These patients did not undergo FSBs for RMs. RESULTS: Of 260 patients, 161 (61.9%) presented low nomogram scores and avoided FSB. The surgical decision to use the nomogram did not significantly increase reoperation rate due to positive RM compared with the control FSB group (4.6% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.47). The surgery time was significantly reduced by 18.1% (mean 14.7 min) in nomogram group (p < 0.001). Of 99 nomogram high-score patients, 14 presented with positive RM on FSB and 11 of them avoided reoperation. In the Kyoto cohort, the reoperation rate was significantly lower in low-score patients than in high-score patients (2.7% vs. 11.4%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We showed that our nomogram is useful to reduce FSBs without increasing reoperation rate for surgeons who perform routine FSBs. For most surgeons, it can give useful information about the possibility of tumor-positive RMs.

Statistical controversies in clinical research: statistical significance-too much of a good thing .

The use and interpretation of P values is a matter of debate in applied research. We argue that P values are useful as a pragmatic guide to interpret the results of a clinical trial, not as a strict binary boundary that separates real treatment effects from lack thereof. We illustrate our point using the result of BOLERO-1, a randomized, double-blind trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of adding everolimus to trastuzumab and paclitaxel as first-line therapy for HER2+ advanced breast cancer. In this trial, the benefit of everolimus was seen only in the predefined subset of patients with hormone receptor-negative breast cancer at baseline (progression-free survival hazard ratio = 0.66, P = 0.0049). A strict interpretation of this finding, based on complex 'alpha splitting' rules to assess statistical significance, led to the conclusion that the benefit of everolimus was not statistically significant either overall or in the subset. We contend that this interpretation does not do justice to the data, and we argue that the benefit of everolimus in hormone receptor-negative breast cancer is both statistically compelling and clinically relevant.

A phase II study of metronomic paclitaxel/cyclophosphamide/capecitabine followed by 5-fluorouracil/epirubicin/cyclophosphamide as preoperative chemotherapy for triple-negative or low hormone receptor expressing/HER2-negative primary breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Better treatments for triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) are needed. To address this need, we studied the effects of preoperative metronomic paclitaxel/cyclophosphamide/capecitabine (mPCX) followed by 5-fluorouracil (FU)/epirubicin/cyclophosphamide (FEC) as preoperative chemotherapy in TNBC patients. METHODS: Forty primary TNBC patients received four cycles of metronomic paclitaxel (80 mg/m(2) on Days 1, 8, and 15), cyclophosphamide (50 mg/body daily), and capecitabine (1,200 mg/m(2) daily), followed by four cycles of 5-FU (500 mg/m(2)), epirubicin (100 mg/m(2)), and cyclophosphamide (500 mg/m(2)) every 3 weeks. The primary end point was the pathological complete response (pCR) rate. RESULTS: Forty patients formed the intent-to-treat population. The median dose intensities of paclitaxel, cyclophosphamide, and capecitabine were 89.7, 92.1, and 89.8%, respectively. Five patients discontinued mPCX and two discontinued FEC, primarily because of adverse events, resulting in a per-protocol population (PPS) of 33 patients. The pCR (ypT0/Tis ypN0) rate was 47.5% (19/40) in the intent-to-treat population and 54.5% (18/33) in the PPS. The clinical response rates were 36/40 (90.0%) and 31/33 (93.9%) in the intent-to-treat and PPS, respectively. The breast conservation rate was 72.7% (24/33), and 5/13 patients underwent partial resection instead of pre-planned total mastectomy. Grade 3-4 adverse events included neutropenia (35%), leukopenia (25%), and hand-foot syndrome (8%). CONCLUSIONS: Metronomic PCX followed by FEC chemotherapy was associated with a high pCR rate and low toxicity in TNBC patients. Further studies of this regimen in larger numbers of patients are warranted.

Survival of HER2-positive primary breast cancer patients treated by neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus trastuzumab: a multicenter retrospective observational study (JBCRG-C03 study).

We investigated the disease-free survival (DFS) of HER2-positive primary breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus trastuzumab, as well as predictive factors for DFS and pathologic response. Data from 829 female patients treated between 2001 and 2010 were collected from 38 institutions in Japan. Predictive factors were evaluated using multivariate analyses. The 3-year DFS rate was 87 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 85-90]. The pathologic complete response (pCR: ypT0/is + ypN0) rate was 51 %. The pCR rate was higher in the ER/PgR-negative patients than in the ER/PgR-positive patients (64 vs. 36 %, P < 0.001). Patients with pCR showed a higher DFS rate than patients without pCR (93 vs. 82 %, P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed three independent predictors for poorer DFS: advanced nodal stage [hazard ratio (HR) 2.63, 95 % CI 1.36-5.21, P = 0.004 for cN2-3 vs. cN0], histological/nuclear grade 3 (HR 1.81, 95 % CI 1.15-2.91, P = 0.011), and non-pCR (HR 1.98, 95 % CI 1.22-3.24, P = 0.005). In the ER/PgR-negative dataset, non-pCR (HR 2.63, 95 % CI 1.43-4.90, P = 0.002) and clinical tumor stage (HR 2.20, 95 % CI 1.16-4.20, P = 0.017 for cT3-4 vs. cT1-2) were independent predictors for DFS, and in the ER/PgR-positive dataset, histological grade of 3 (HR 3.09, 95 % CI 1.48-6.62, P = 0.003), clinical nodal stage (HR 4.26, 95 % CI 1.53-13.14, P = 0.005 for cN2-3 vs. cN0), and young age (HR 2.40, 95 % CI 1.12-4.94, P = 0.026 for ≤40 vs. >40) were negative predictors for DFS. Strict pCR (ypT0 + ypN0) was an independent predictor for DFS in both the ER/PgR-negative and -positive datasets (HR 2.66, 95 % CI 1.31-5.97, P = 0.006 and HR 3.86, 95 % CI 1.13-24.21, P = 0.029, respectively). These results may help assure a more accurate prognosis and personalized treatment for HER2-positive breast cancer patients.

Randomized trial of preoperative docetaxel with or without capecitabine after 4 cycles of 5-fluorouracil­ epirubicin­cyclophosphamide (FEC) in early-stage breast cancer: exploratory analyses identify Ki67 as a predictive biomarker for response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

This randomized, multicenter study compared the efficacy of docetaxel with or without capecitabine following fluorouracil/epirubicin/cyclophosphamide (FEC) therapy in operable breast cancer and investigated the role of Ki67 as a predictive biomarker. Patients were randomized to 4 cycles of docetaxel/capecitabine (docetaxel: 75 mg/m2 on day 1; capecitabine: 1,650 mg/m2 on days 1­14 every 3 weeks) or docetaxel alone (75 mg/m2 on day 1 every 3 weeks) after completion of 4 cycles of FEC (5-fluorouracil 500 mg/m2, epirubicin 100 mg/m2 and cyclophosphamide 500 mg/m2 on day 1 every 3 weeks). The primary endpoint was the pathological complete response (pCR) rate. Predictive factor analysis was conducted using clinicopathological markers, including hormone receptors and Ki67 labeling index (Ki67LI). A total of 477 patients were randomized; the overall response in the docetaxel/capecitabine and docetaxel groups was 88.3 and 87.4 %, respectively. There were no significant differences in the pCR rate (docetaxel/capecitabine: 23 %; docetaxel: 24 %; p = 0.748), disease-free survival, or overall survival. However, patients with mid-range Ki67LI (10­20 %) showed a trend towards improved pCR rate with docetaxel/capecitabine compared to docetaxel alone. Furthermore, multivariate logistic regression analysis showed pre-treatment Ki67LI (odds ratio 1.031; 95 % CI 1.014­1.048; p = 0.0004) to be a significant predictor of pCR in this neoadjuvant treatment setting. Docetaxel/capecitabine (after 4 cycles of FEC) did not generate significant improvement in pCR compared to docetaxel alone. However, exploratory analyses suggested that assessment of pre-treatment Ki67LI may be a useful tool in the identification of responders to preoperative docetaxel/capecitabine in early-stage breast cancer.

Predictions of the pathological response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with primary breast cancer using a data mining technique.

Nomogram, a standard technique that utilizes multiple characteristics to predict efficacy of treatment and likelihood of a specific status of an individual patient, has been used for prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in breast cancer patients. The aim of this study was to develop a novel computational technique to predict the pathological complete response (pCR) to NAC in primary breast cancer patients. A mathematical model using alternating decision trees, an epigone of decision tree, was developed using 28 clinicopathological variables that were retrospectively collected from patients treated with NAC (n = 150), and validated using an independent dataset from a randomized controlled trial (n = 173). The model selected 15 variables to predict the pCR with yielding area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values of 0.766 [95 % confidence interval (CI)], 0.671-0.861, P value < 0.0001) in cross-validation using training dataset and 0.787 (95 % CI 0.716-0.858, P value < 0.0001) in the validation dataset. Among three subtypes of breast cancer, the luminal subgroup showed the best discrimination (AUC = 0.779, 95 % CI 0.641-0.917, P value = 0.0059). The developed model (AUC = 0.805, 95 % CI 0.716-0.894, P value < 0.0001) outperformed multivariate logistic regression (AUC = 0.754, 95 % CI 0.651-0.858, P value = 0.00019) of validation datasets without missing values (n = 127). Several analyses, e.g. bootstrap analysis, revealed that the developed model was insensitive to missing values and also tolerant to distribution bias among the datasets. Our model based on clinicopathological variables showed high predictive ability for pCR. This model might improve the prediction of the response to NAC in primary breast cancer patients.